Interamnia

Oil is ~$120 per barrel, and possibly rising to $200 by the end of the year. So it's just about doubled in price in one year, and likely to do the same the next...

We can assume - with a finite resource, and one sold into a clearly rapidly growing market - that there has to be a peak oil moment, though it's difficult to place this instant until it's a few years behind us. Estimates from the Hirsch Report put this peak around about 2010 - though it might have already occurred. No matter whether it's a few years one way or another, this decade is the defining turning point of the Oil Age.

The likely outcome from finite resources and a growing market? The price will continue to rise.

Now that obviously affects car-owners directly. My daily commute is 20 kilometres, each way. My car burns 7.5 litres of petrol (currently at £1.08 per litre) every 100 km. With parking charges, my daily cost for the "privilege" of commuting to work is just about £5.00.

I can currently commute by train for a lesser amount - it's £4.70 - but that entails a total of five miles of walking in any and all weathers.

At what point do I ditch the car and take the train? I suspect it's going to be once the car trip costs around two to three times the rail trip - and that could be in just a couple of years' time...

The impact of the end of oil could be a lot closer to the ordinary Joe than people have perhaps considered, notwithstanding rising food, heating and manufacturing costs...